"BUSINESS AS USUAL"
"(...)At this point, he sees a weak and divided NATO and United States. Germany will soon install a new government headed by “business as usual” Social Democrats who harken back to the good old days of Ostpolitik. Putin sees a weak Joe Biden infamous for his disastrous pullout from Afghanistan and coddling of China. If Putin were to choose blatant military action, he likely could expect some weak sanctions from a Europe held hostage by Russian gas. He knows that France and Germany would not tolerate an energy-induced recession for the sake of Ukraine.(...)
NATO and the U.S. should understand that Ukraine will never accept a “prodigal son” return to Russia dictated by veto-wielding (...)"separatists. If Zelensky were to do so, Ukrainians would go to the streets for a second “Revolution of Dignity.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/584458-why-should-putin-invade-when-ukraine-can-be-destroyed-from-within-with
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